Change from 2011 to 2100 in crops and suitability for crops, as modeled with a “business-as-usual” SRES A1B model. Brown is negative change or towards desert-like conditions, while green is wetter, positive change. The new research by Battelle-PNNL says this may even be “too WET.“
“The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071–2100 with 1981–2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia). Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases…” – “Global Agricultural Land Resources – A High Resolution Suitability Evaluation and Its Perspectives until 2100 under Climate Change Conditions” Florian Zabel , Birgitta Putzenlechner, Wolfram Mauser, September 17, 2014,
