Surface Temperature under the four (4) major models used by the UNEP and the IPCC to represent potential changes, all under human control.
The RCP2.6 model represents the Paris Accord senario in which countries limit global temperature increases to 1.5C by 2030-2035. Humanity has already missed that standard in many parts of the World who are now living in a 1.5C World and heading towards a 2.0C World (e.g., The Arctic). The outlier is the RCP8.5 model in which humanity decides not to limit temperature increases, but conducts “Business-As-Usual” with devastating effects.
From Climate Change: The Science and Global Impact*, Module 6.2: Projected changes in global precipitation and drought, by Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Sciences Dr. Michael E. Mann
*The course introduction video (below), describing the free course available to those who wish to stay in the know about climate change, its causes, its effects, and what we need to do as humans RIGHT NOW.