“Absence of internal multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations in climate model simulations”

Absence of internal multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations in climate model simulations

Michael E. Mann*, Byron A. Steinman & Sonya K. Miller

For several decades the existence of interdecadal and multidecadal internal climate oscilla- tions has been asserted by numerous studies based on analyses of historical observations, paleoclimatic data and climate model simulations. Here we use a combination of observa- tional data and state-of-the-art forced and control climate model simulations to demonstrate the absence of consistent evidence for decadal or longer-term internal oscillatory signals that are distinguishable from climatic noise. Only variability in the interannual range associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation is found to be distinguishable from the noise back- ground. A distinct (40–50 year timescale) spectral peak that appears in global surface temperature observations appears to reflect the response of the climate system to both anthropogenic and natural forcing rather than any intrinsic internal oscillation. These findings have implications both for the validity of previous studies attributing certain long-term cli- mate trends to internal low-frequency climate cycles and for the prospect of decadal climate predictability.”

We provide the link to the OPEN ACCESS article in Nature Communication s41467-019-13823-w  , but do not try to make the whole article ours.  It does not belong to us. We only give you a flavour of it, so you can make up your own mind if you like and want to support the award-winning journalism behind it, like we do. Of course, we do not or could support all the points made in any article we highlight, but that is part of living in a democracy.  We believe the material is relevant to all and is necessary for their personal judgments.

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