Winter Forecast – 10SEP19

58B508DD-2C8C-4EDA-8033-5CB3EFEE245BFrom the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) Ice Thickness Model.  See the PURPLE? That is all Sea-Ice less than a meter thick. 

Full Link To Past Article and Post

One thing that PNNL Climate Scientist Jin-Ho Yoon and his collaborators were very good at was understanding and deciphering the signals from specific regions of the Arctic Sea-Ice as an indicator of Winter weather in North America. This was outlined in their 2014 paper.  I am not a climatologist, just a rank-and-file scientist and former professor of Chemistry and Physics at UCF-Orlando.   And also, a damn good modeler using Linux and iMac cluster in parallel.  I use Jin-Ho Yoon, et. al.’s specific concept in my calculations.

This weekend, I have reviewed my continuation of their Los Alamos CICE model with specific emphasis now on the B-K Sea Region.  This model has been accurate for the last four years, and their model forecast a collapse of the Arctic Vortex this past winter east of the Rockies, when NOAA was still stuck talking about El Niño and a “warm, sunny Christmas and New Year.”  Fox News weathermen were heard setting up  “golf tee times for January,”  on the air.

Few People Expected The Polar or Arctic Vortex to Collapse Continually in 2018-2019

A former manager, after the model predictions became reality texted me , “No one could predict that. Well, no one did anyway.”  So even here, after four (4) years of forecast accuracy, even in a scientist I admire, denial sentiments existed.  He has given up as a whole, hoping for a “weaning of humanity.” His own boss had previously overseen some of the first climate models of greenhouse warming in 1989.  (It’s those models that Prof. Carl Sagan spoke about in his 1990 speech in North Carolina, and I highlighted for Prof. Michael E. Mann and others in November, 2018 with “Essential Carl Sagan,” from YouTube (below) which was the middle of that speech of over 50 minutes.  It was at a time when Prof. Mann was emphasizing simplicity and brevity in deliver of the climate change message).

“Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt…”  Carl Sagan quoting lyrics from Dire Straits.  He is not repeating slogans of the 21st Century like ‘climate deniers’.   He’s originating them in this speech.

As I have written in another post previously, my manager’s boss – after reviewing the conservative estimates at that time – immediately began planning for his children, and where he and his wife would move in retirement.   This was a full decade, 10 years before the term “hockey stick ” was popularized by the climatologist Jerry Mahlman, to describe the pattern shown by the the now-famous Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1999 (MBH99) eigenvector reconstruction.

His boss also expressed a certain denial and resignation that in 1989-1990 humanity could not act in unison to stop “runaway greenhouse warming.”  It was just then ending the “Cold War.”

I have been retired for 8 years, never had kids, never married, and younger voices have risen and demanded a future free of hotter and hotter weather. Will they be drowned out by other younger voices wanting hotter, longer summers…with more paid leave?

Or will they be leaders in the charge against and controlling global warming?  In the words of an Inuit spokeswoman from Nunavut in her 2018 autobiography title, will they demand, “The Right To Be Cold.”

Screen Shot 2019-09-10 at 8.21.03 AMphoto cover: from The Right To Be Cold may separately be copyrighted.

Few will even consider what models’ forecast for this Winter 2019-2020 portend

This year, I will not release results of their model. “So Sorry,” they used to say in Canada.

I will tell you:  Glaciers will continue to melt and be irreversibly lost. Coastline will also disappear, and cities will sink like Jakarta.  No one alive today will ever see The Northwestern Glacier in its entirety – named for my alma mater. It’s gone after the 2020 year, except as a small frozen snow field accessible only by Zodiac boat.

No one will hike from the sea-to-glacier wall of the Franz Josef Glacier in New Zealand, as I did.  Hiking to its wall, crawling down crevices, and up again. And that was only in the last 10 years.  Its’ not a sad thing, it’s not a good thing. It’s reality.  Here’s a photo of our crew less than ten years ago…

IMG_0063You – reading this post – will NEVER climb its wall.  Nor stand where these 3 women and 7 other men, and our guide, the woman in red, stood. Never. Ever. Its all gone.  I am trying to make a point about irreversibility and you, and 12 years-to-go.  I am trying not to be mean or “denialist”.

Personally, I am planning to visit friends young and old who know what’s happening and what to do about it.  They live in a sustainable environment. I plan to join climate strikers where I can on Fridays.  Trying to make a statement by being a LONE climate striker  now is stupid. Greta Thunberg did that in August, 2018 and started a movement.  The World doesn’t need martyrs, its needs leaders.  I will work on maintaining coffee species for the small-plot farmers in Hawai`i.

Fearing no critics, I will give my opinion  based on science and scientists I trust.  Like UCF Physics Professor Dan Britt :

(1) New York City is unsustainable. Period. Hundreds of people leave it every day now.  It has negative growth. They sense what is happening, although they cannot rationalize it, maybe.  Yes, an estimated 277 people a day are bailing on the Big Apple, making the metro area the biggest net loser of people in the U.S. (followed by L.A. and Chicago), Bloomberg reports.   Some 200,000 people left NYC — also the country’s largest metro area by population — between July 2017 and July 2018, according to Census data.  What’s likely driving the movement? Cost of living, weather and work opportunities.

(2) The Florida State coastline is unsustainable.  It will continue to be costly to maintain, and slowly or quickly fall under the waves like Grand Bahama Island.

(3) Louisiana’s delta region, including Orleans Parish is unsustainable.

(4) Meanwhile, Dallas and Phoenix are gaining the lion’s share of new arrivals.  What’s likely driving the movement?  Cost of living, weather and work opportunities; away from the the torrential rains and hurricanes ravaging the Gulf Coast.

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