One month to Arctic Sea-Ice minimum

Screen Shot 2019-08-14 at 7.46.04 AMWhy US authorities are concerned with “whatever you want to call it, Mr. President,” Global Warming.  A nice, clean, ice-free Arctic route for Russian vessels is now afforded to Canada and Alaska…  Russia has already claimed the North Pole as part of Mother Russia  and  an extension of its continental shelf.

One of the last scientific models I work with is the Los Alamos CICE, described on many webpages.  Here are two links:   Arcus    OSTI

In general and historically, sea-ice minimum – the smallest extent in the Arctic Sea-Ice from the summer melt-off occurs just before Autumnal Solstice in September.  We wait until September, when all possible variations can be considered before making a prediction on the coming months of Winter.

I work with one variation of CICE that for me, has proven to be the most accurate over the last four years.  This model is slightly different from those looking at the entire Arctic Sea-Ice minimum which generally seems to negate the effects of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) component in Arctic Vortex Collapse.  I make no claims further than this about this model.  The idea was not mine, originally.

It is based on the work of Battelle-PNNL climate scientists who argued that specific regions in the Arctic sea-ice melt are more important to the weather over North America and Europe, and must be treated locally to understand their crucial repercussions.  We emphasize the air, sea, water temperatures, and sea-ice coverage in the Barents- Kara Sea Ice region just north of Norway and Russia, beginning near Arkhangelsk and Severdvinsk, Russia.

Screen Shot 2019-08-14 at 8.03.21 AM

Screen Shot 2019-08-14 at 8.05.00 AMThe region of the “nuclear accident” that killed Russian nuclear scientists is near Severodvinsk and Arkhangelsk.  This is also a region where Russian authorities have been building and deploying large vessels with multiple nuclear power reactors.  President Putin initially ordered the surrounding villages evacuated, but that order was apparently reversed after the “explosion.”

ABC News on Nuclear Accident

Leave it to say, Russia does a lot of powering-up and experiments with nuclear radiative sources in its near-Arctic regions, including the 132 nuclear-powered lighthouses, and multiple-ship nuclear reactors.





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