Arctic Sea Ice => Mid-Summer


Well, there it is.  Not much to say, except what I and countless youth and students have been saying since, at least, Greta Thunberg went on strike in August last year.  Almost a whole year.  The Arctic Sea Ice melt is at the lowest point since the disastrous season of 2012.  We will not know the minimum for another 2 months at least.  Usually, the minimum occurs in early September.  What can we say now?

Without peering into a crystal ball (pretty futile) or stopping my model from running to look at the result pre-maturely, I will surmise.   What this means, in rough terms, is that 30% of the remaining ice cover is at the lowest thickness: 15%-20% thick.  That is the first lighter blue step above navy blue at the bottom of the bar scale, above.  The first 15% is liquid water.  It is not hard to imagine all Sea-Ice north of the Bering Sea melting and becoming ice-free this year up to the 10th parallel.  There is not much left.  It means this may be the last end-of-summer or Arctic Sea-Ice minimum that sports an Ice Cap at the North Pole in this cycle.

As we reach 2C warmer that the pre-industrial average in the 19th Century, we will have complete periodic melting of the North Pole Ice Cap, so that in September-October, the Arctic Sea will be ice-free and all liquid water.  We are probably a summer away from it right now.  In other words 2020.

Screen Shot 2019-07-10 at 3.10.19 PM.png

In other disastrous news is GREENLAND.  Again. The melt extent was 40% in June on the land itself. Sweet Jesus!




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