There are two Poles. North and South. Our Polar Vortex could be, or likely not, Australia’s or South Africa’s. I’ll look into it when I have a chance. Since this year has witness a surprising loss of Antarctic ice shelf not seen in this century, it may involve a Polar Vortex unfamiliar to us here in North America.
I try to maintain some level of expectation and surprise, within my science. I could be completely right or undeniably wrong, for example. But I have been modeling and predicting the “Arctic Vortex Collapse” (as it was called) now “Negative Arctic Oscillation,” as it has recently been called, since the Arctic Sea-Ice Minimum of 2014 – 4 years into this season of 2018-2019.
I had a “heads-up” of the science behind it and predicted the mild forms of arctic vortex and positive and negative oscillations that fateful season of 2014-2015. My friends in NOL/WMI took an interest, particularly those associated with REI in the USA.*
When I moved from Linux Clusters with Infiniband interfaces to the more compact and “inexpensive” iMac minis with Thunderbolt2 “interfaceless” connections I continued modeling. Finally with CAM5.0 and the open Los Alamos Community ICE editions, as outlined previously.
THIS YEAR’S MODEL
This year’s model was something different. It predicted on the run of 02-6SEP18 (it takes time to let the parallel model run and check it again by running from scratch) that the 2018-2019 season would be unique.
It predicted that the Arctic vortex would weaken and collapse continually during the winter of 2019. That what the USA east of The Rockies is experiencing now with -20 to -41F, was only the beginning. In the week after partial recover, another collapse would occur driven by the same forces that initialed the first – Global Warming trends and the loss of Arctic Sea Ice in the Barents-Kara Sea Region. (I sound like a compressed MP3, right?)
In the event, because it turns out to be correct, doesn’t make it worth understanding and explaining. Local ABC weather forecasters called for help from their manager last night to defeat any real understanding of Climate Change and Global Warming. I have a great video of it.
Now this morning, the New York Times is beginning to float talk more about the duration of “Three Lobes (?) of Polar Vortex” being upto 6-8 weeks…
Huh? Apparently in this telling, three lobes again turn into one “lobette”, with winds magically switching direction and becoming “cold”. Anything to obfuscate. Even the New York Times. of all these figures, the last one showing the Jet Stream and the Negative Arctic Oscillation are the most truthful as the exist today.
Realize that before the 21st Century, there was no Vortex Collapse nor Negative Arctic Oscillation. Nor warming of the Arctic Sea, nor loss of Arctic Sea-Ice in the Barents-Kara Sea Region.
It is a true Millennial, as much as it represents the robbery of Children’s Future on Earth. And THEY KNEW IT – long before I did, according to Prof. Kevin Anderson. They certainly know it now.
They knew who was going to be killed by global warming and climate change from which regions of the world they lived in. They knew the effect of measles and other diseases; of warming waters and humid hot climates; of cold, frigid Arctic blasts. If you are angry now, I am with you.
*Before my account was hacked on Facebook during the Presidential elections of 2016, I answered questions for a kayaker friend – “What is the reference? Is there any literature on what you say?” I passed on the 2014 paper. Hopefully it got to him. He turned into a fanatic fan of a male presidential candidate.