Our Small Forecast – “Winter is Coming as a BEAST in The East.” [re-published from SEPTEMBER 11, 2018 with update]

Originally published on 11SEP18


We look especially to the Barents-Kara Seas (B-K) for an indication during the Arctic Sea Ice Minimum. Why?

Because the B-K area has never seen regrowth in November if it is clear at September’s minimum – as it is now; as it was.

Screen Shot 2018-11-24 at 11.49.58 AM

Based on this model, this is a sure indicator of continual Arctic Vortex Collapse and a negative phase of Arctic Oscillation which leads to extremely low seasonal temperatures on the US Eastern Seaboard.

Screen Shot 2018-09-12 at 9.07.22 AMWhile regrowth has begun on the Far East Siberian Arctic (Laptev Sea in the West to the Chukchi Sea in the East), in coves, fjords, and bay areas, the B-K area are again absolutely free of Arctic Sea Ice (ASIC or SIC). Naryan-Mar is the central city of the Autonomous District of Nenetsia where the Pechora River feeds this area. This is West of the larger city of Vorkuta outside the District.

Screen Shot 2018-09-11 at 9.58.11 PM


Screen Shot 2018-09-11 at 9.58.59 PM



That is 5.0+C temperatures in the Arctic Oceans in the Barents and Kara Seas in August-September, 2018.

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