Originally published on 11SEP18
We look especially to the Barents-Kara Seas (B-K) for an indication during the Arctic Sea Ice Minimum. Why?
Because the B-K area has never seen regrowth in November if it is clear at September’s minimum – as it is now; as it was.
Based on this model, this is a sure indicator of continual Arctic Vortex Collapse and a negative phase of Arctic Oscillation which leads to extremely low seasonal temperatures on the US Eastern Seaboard.
While regrowth has begun on the Far East Siberian Arctic (Laptev Sea in the West to the Chukchi Sea in the East), in coves, fjords, and bay areas, the B-K area are again absolutely free of Arctic Sea Ice (ASIC or SIC). Naryan-Mar is the central city of the Autonomous District of Nenetsia where the Pechora River feeds this area. This is West of the larger city of Vorkuta outside the District.
That is 5.0+C temperatures in the Arctic Oceans in the Barents and Kara Seas in August-September, 2018.