HOW WRONG DID NOAA GET IT?

Last year, it was “Cyclone Bomb.”  This year, its “Early Winter Invasion”. Why frame climate change in the politics of the day?  It’s Arctic Vortex Collapse.

Screen Shot 2018-11-10 at 7.26.59 AMThe EURO MODEL prediction for Monday 17:00EST. 

 

Screen Shot 2018-10-21 at 6.09.06 PMDon’t you want to live in that beautiful continent, above? “I can almost see the Western sunset…”


 

Screen Shot 2018-11-10 at 7.27.22 AMScreen Shot 2018-11-10 at 7.27.31 AMEURO MODEL, meaning accurate with our understanding of Global Warming and Climate Change.  The Weather Channel has already abandoned NOAA’s prediction!

I wish I could begin this Saturday morning on a lighter note, after the massive wildfires out of control in California. If you look at a Fire Map of SoCal, LA looks completely surrounded by flames.  The 2nd firestorm of the season has already attacked Northern California, west of Redding in Paradise-Chico (below).

Screen Shot 2018-11-10 at 10.46.31 AM

However, NOAA threw the dice again, using an old, pre-Climate Change model called “mild El Nino”, and lost.  Big time.  According to the Good Judgment Project’s Brier score scaling (The higher the number, the worse you are at forecasting), a chimpanzee can easily get a 50-50 chance, or a Brier score of 0.5, either over time, or over numbers of shots. That’s what defines “average”.  The chances of a chimp or monkey getting it right.

NOAA  has not done well against Ms. Monkey.  NOAA’s Brier score equals about 0.8 as if they were “predicting” like a one-eyed pirate without depth perception.

Realize the depth of this this criticism of NOAA.  Meteorology is one of the most statistically-based sciences and is highly accurate.  It’s Brier score is usually about 0.25 or less.  Highly accurate in prediction, the error bars associated with that prediction, and the timeframe of that prediction.   From larger modeling, meteorologists come up with highly accurate models that improve on forecasting and extending the timeframe out to weeks, and months.

Now look at NOAA.  Political infighting destroyed all, but the bureaucracy. Every agency that was telling NOAA to move forward on global warming, like The National Hurricane Center has been subsumed NOAA.  Now, instead of giving competing forecasts of major storms, only one prediction is made.  It acts like its KNOWS what the Administration will stomach and what it will not and begins self-censoring  with the first prediction.

OK, enough talk. Summing up…

  • NOAA predicted for November “A” (only 23 days ago) in the Northeast of the USA, with a  +33% “Better Than Average” chance of above normal temperatures!   “Let’s go play golf next month,” said one forecaster in NYC on ‘Good Morning America’
  • What is the Northeast faced with, now, in reality?  11F now and dropping.  Snow, sleet, and ice.  All well known symptoms of Global Warming in Winter this early.

The Winter weather is coming from a collapse of the Arctic Vortex, predicted here and elsewhere, as we watched the massive melt of Arctic Sea Ice.  In September, the Arctic Sea Ice Minimum along the coast of Trans-Siberia.   In the Barents and Kara Seas it reached its limits of land and open water.  The water in the Arctic was +5 to +10C in September.

Screen Shot 2018-11-11 at 4.39.07 AM

The Weather Channel 10NOV18


Note:  Sorry.  Sometimes I am brash and generally, I try to be a nice guy.   I will clean this story up in a day or two.

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