Chapter 1 – IPCC (UN) Report

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“Sustainable development and a 1.5°C warmer world is noted with high confidence that ‘equity is an integral dimension of sustainable development’ and that ‘mitigation and adaptation measures can strongly affect broader sustainable development and  equity objectives’ (Fleurbaey et al., 2014)

  • My translation:  The appearance of equal treatment in any development billed as sustainable must be integral to mitigation and adaption, or displacement objectives.

“Limiting global warming to 1.5°C will require substantial societal and technological transformations, dependent in turn on global and regional sustainable development pathways.

  • My translation: Given the fact the the majority of people love to eat meat; still drive diesel and gas-powered cars, routinely take jet-powered airplanes everywhere, and invest in “festivals” of imperial delight, like “Burning Man” bent on burning anything they can find, will require substantial societal and technological transformations that are near-to-absolutely impossible to attain BEFORE we reach 1.5C as the mean, month-to-month global temperature increase. 2.0C – Here we come!

“A range of pathways, both sustainable and not, are explored in this report, including implementation strategies to understand the enabling conditions and challenges required for such a transformation. These pathways and connected strategies are framed within the context of sustainable development, and in particular the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (UNGA, 2015) and Cross-Chapter Box 4 on SDGs (in this Chapter). The feasibility of staying within 1.5°C depends upon a range of enabling conditions with geophysical, environmental ecological, technological, economic, socio-cultural, and institutional enabling conditions. Limiting  warming to 1.5°C also involves identifying technology and policy levers to accelerate the pace of transformation (see Chapter 4). Some pathways are more consistent than others with the requirements  for sustainable development (see Chapter 5). Overall, the three-pronged emphasis on sustainable development, resilience, and transformation provides Chapter 5 an opportunity to assess the conditions of simultaneously reducing societal vulnerabilities, addressing entrenched inequalities, and breaking the circle of poverty.

  • My translation: There are many paths through the forests.  Hide out as best you can!  And forget limiting warming to 1.5C.  It is easier for a camel to fit through the eye of a needle than for a us – as a species – to meet any goal for 1.5C.

“The feasibility of any global commitment to a 1.5°C pathway depends, in part, on the cumulative  influence of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs), committing nation states to specific GHG emission reductions. The current NDCs, extending only to 2030, do not limit warming to 1.5°C. Depending on mitigation decisions after 2030, they cumulatively track toward a warming of 3-4°C above preindustrial temperatures by 2100, with the potential for further warming thereafter (Rogelj et  al., 2016a; UNFCCC, 2016).

  • My translation:   Hmmm… who mentioned 3-4°C. …..What!

 

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