IPCC -The Fifth Assessment Webpage

Remember when reading this, President Trump’s team had to sign off on it for it to be published.  This report is about as non-partisan as it gets, I guess. Words are easy.  The tasks ahead may seem insurmountable.  But not impossible.

I write these words at Hurricane Michael takes out the panhandle of Florida, 10OCT18…

IPCC 5th Assessment

 

Working Group I

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis

Summary for Policy Makers Technical Summary

Chapter 1:

Chapter 2:

Introduction

Executive Summary

  • Rationale and key concepts of the WG1 contribution
  • Treatment of uncertainty
  • Climate change projections since FARFrequently Asked QuestionsObservations: Atmosphere and Surface

    Executive Summary

  • Changes in surface temperature and soil temperature
  • Changes in temperature, humidity and clouds
  • Changes in atmospheric composition
  • Changes in radiation fields and energy budget
  • Changes in hydrology, runoff, precipitation and drought
  • Changes in atmospheric circulation, including wind
  • Spatial and temporal patterns of climate variability
  • Changes in extreme events, including tropical and extratropical stormsFrequently Asked QuestionsObservations: Ocean

    Executive Summary

    • Changes in ocean temperature and heat content
    • Ocean salinity change and freshwater fluxes
    • Sea level change, ocean waves and storm surges
    • Ocean biogeochemical changes, including ocean acidification
    • Changes in ocean surface processes
    • Changes in ocean circulation
    • Spatial and temporal patterns of ocean variabilityFrequently Asked QuestionsObservations: Cryosphere

      Executive Summary

      • Changes in ice sheets, including mass balance
      • Changes in ice shelves
      • Changes in glaciers and ice caps
      • Sea ice variability and trends
      • Snow and ice cover variability and trends
      • Changes in frozen ground
      • Dynamics of ice sheets, ice shelves, ice caps, glaciers and sea iceFrequently Asked Questions

Chapter 3:

Chapter 4:

Chapter 5:

Information from Paleoclimate Archives

Executive Summary

  • Characteristics of early instrumental, documentary and natural climate archives
  • Reconstruction of radiative forcing and climate response
  • Reconstruction of regional variability and extremes
  • Abrupt climate changes and their regional expression
  • Sea level and ice sheets: patterns, amplitudes and rates of change
  • Paleoclimate perspective on irreversibility in the climate system
  • Paleodata-model intercomparisonsFrequently Asked QuestionsCarbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles

    Executive Summary

    • Past changes in CO2, CH4, N2O and biogeochemical cycles
    • Recent trends in global and regional sources, sinks and inventories, includingland use change
    • Processes and understanding of changes, including ocean acidification
    • Interactions between the carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, including thenitrogen cycle
    • Projections of changes in carbon and other biogeochemical cycles
    • Greenhouse gas stabilisation
    • Carbon cycle – climate feedbacks and irreversibility
    • Geoengineering involving the carbon cycleFrequently Asked QuestionsClouds and Aerosols

      Executive Summary

      • Observations of clouds and their representation in models
      • Coupling of clouds, water vapour, precipitation and the large-scale circulation
      • Cloud and water vapour feedbacks and their effects on climate sensitivity
      • Observations of aerosols and their representation in models
      • Aerosol types including black carbon: chemistry, sources, sinks and distribution
      • Direct and indirect aerosol forcing and effects, including contrails and cosmic rays
      • Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions
      • Geoengineering involving clouds and aerosolsFrequently Asked QuestionsAnthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing

        Executive Summary

        • Natural radiative forcing changes: solar and volcanic
        • Anthropogenic radiative forcing, including effects from land surface changes
        • Effects of atmospheric chemistry and composition
        • Spatial and temporal expression of radiative forcing
        • Greenhouse gas and other metrics, including Global Warming Potential (GWP)and Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP) Frequently Asked Questions

Chapter 6:

Chapter 7:

Chapter 8:

Chapter 9:

Evaluation of Climate Models

Executive Summary

  • The hierarchy of climate models: from global to regional
  • Downscaling methods
  • Assessing model performance, including quantitative measures and their use
  • New model components and couplings
  • Representation of processes and feedbacks in climate models
  • Simulation of recent and longer term records
  • Simulation of regional patterns, variability and extremesFrequently Asked QuestionsDetection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional

    Executive Summary

  • Evaluation of methodologies
  • Atmospheric and surface changes
  • Changes in ocean properties
  • Cryosphere changes
  • Extreme events
  • Pre-instrumental perspective
  • Implications of attribution for projectionsFrequently Asked QuestionsNear-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability

    Executive Summary

  • Predictability of interannual to decadal climate variations and change
  • Projections for the next few decades
  • Regional climate change, variability and extremes
  • Atmospheric composition and air quality
  • Possible effects of geoengineering
  • Quantification of the range of climate change projectionsFrequently Asked QuestionsLong-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility

    Executive Summary

    • Scenario description
    • Projections for the 21st century
    • Projections beyond the 21st century
    • Regional climate change, variability and extremes
    • Forcing, response and climate sensitivity
    • Climate change commitment and inertia
    • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system
    • Quantification of the range of climate change projectionsFrequently Asked QuestionsSea Level Change

      Executive Summary

      • Synthesis of past sea level change and its components
      • Models for sea level change
      • Projections of globally averaged sea level rise
      • Projections of the regional distribution of sea level change
      • Extreme sea level events
      • Potential ice sheet instability and its implications
      • Multi-century projections

Chapter 10:

Chapter 11:

Chapter 12:

Chapter 13:

Chapter 14:

Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change

Executive Summary

  • Patterns of variability: observations, understanding and projections
  • Monsoon systems: observations, understanding and projections
  • Extremes: observations, understanding and projections
  • Interconnections among phenomenaFrequently Asked Questions

Frequently Asked Questions

Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections Annex II: Glossary
Annex III: Acronyms and Regional Abbreviations
Annex IV: List of Authors

Annex V: List of Reviewers Index


 

Working Group II

Outline of the Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

Table of Contents

Summary for Policymakers Technical Summary

Each sectoral and regional chapter will include a standard set of topics that are referred to as [CONTEXT] in each chapter outline:

  • Observed impacts, with detection and attribution
  • Projected integrated climate change impacts, with regional variation by scenarioand time slice
  • Assessing impacts, vulnerabilities, and riskso Vulnerabilities to key drivers (including extremes)
    o Economic, social, and environmental context for uncertain futures underalternative development pathways o Multiple interacting stresses
    o Uncertainty
    o Valuation of impacts and adaptation o Key vulnerabilities
  • Adaptation and managing risks
    o Adaptation needs and gaps (based on assessed impacts and vulnerabilities) o Practical experiences of adaptation, including lessons learned
    o Observed and expected barriers to adaptation
    o Observed and expected limits to adaptation
    o Facilitating adaptation and avoiding maladaptation
    o Planned and autonomous adaptation
    o Potential and residual impacts
    o Thresholds and irreversible changes
  • Case studies
  • Research and data gapsEach chapter will include an executive summary, FAQs, and referencesPART A: GLOBAL AND SECTORAL ASPECTS

    Context for the AR5

    1. Point of departure

    • The setting
    • Major conclusions of WGII AR4
    • Major conclusions of Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events andDisasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
    • Major conclusions of WGI AR52. Foundations for decisionmaking
      • Key concepts
      • Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerabilities on a range of scales
      • Assessing impacts, vulnerabilities, and riskso Multi-metric valuation
        o Treatment of uncertainty o Key vulnerabilities
      • Managing risks
      • Climate-resilient pathways: adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development

interactions

Natural and Managed Resources and Systems, and Their Uses

  1. Freshwater resources
    • Diversity of world water resources and their sensitivity to climate change[CONTEXT]
    • Cryosphere
    • Interactions among water resources, human activities, and the built environment
    • Water management, water security, and sustainable development
  2. Terrestrial and inland water systems
    • Diversity of world ecosystems and their sensitivities to climate change: from themountains to the coast, from the tropics to the poles
      o Intensively managed systems: forestry, fiber, and fuel production o Wildlands and extensively managed systems
      o Protected and conservation areas
      [CONTEXT] {for each ecosystem}
    • Ecosystem services
    • Interactions among ecosystems; land use, land-use change and forestry; and otherhuman activities
    • Vulnerability of carbon pools, bio-energy implications, and carbon managementpotentials
    • Threats to human activities, infrastructure, and biodiversity
  3. Coastal systems and low-lying areas
    • Diversity of world ecosystems and their sensitivities to climate change[CONTEXT] {for each ecosystem}
    • Ecosystem services
    • Interactions among ecosystems, human activities, and the built environment
    • Sea-level rise, changes in coastal dynamics, and threats to human activities,infrastructure, agriculture, and biodiversity
  4. Ocean systems
    • Diversity of world ecosystems and their sensitivities to climate change[CONTEXT] {for each ecosystem}
    • Ecosystem services
    • Water property changes, including temperature and ocean acidification
    • Interactions between ecosystems and human activities
    • Threats to human activities and biodiversity
  5. Food production systems and food security
    • Food production: farming, livestock, and fisheries and their sensitivities to climatechange[CONTEXT]
    • Food systems: processing, distribution, and access
    • Food security and the means to achieve itHuman Settlements, Industry, and Infrastructure

8. Urban Areas

[CONTEXT]

  • Urbanization processes, sustainable habitats, and climate change risks
  • Urban micro-climates, including urban heat islands
  • Civic services and infrastructure
  • Housing and settlements
  • Economic base
  • Development plans and development pathways, including social capital
  • Urban planning, management, and governance
  • Landscape and regional interconnections

9. Rural Areas

[CONTEXT]

  • Landscape and regional interconnections (including migration)
  • Housing and settlements
  • Economic base and livelihoods
  • Infrastructure
  • Social capital and resilience

10. Key economic sectors and services

[CONTEXT]

  • Networked infrastructure, including transportation, energy, water, and sanitation
  • Industry and manufacturing
  • Tourism
  • Social and other economic services
  • Market impacts (supply chains, systemic risks, and insurance){Food production, building on Chapter 7}Human Health, Well-Being, and Security

    11. Human health

    [CONTEXT]

    • Determinants of health: current and future trends
    • Health outcomes and their sensitivity to climate changeo Extreme events
      o Air quality
      o Foodborne and waterborne diseases o Vectorborne and zoonotic diseases o Malnutrition
    • Water quality, availability, and sanitation
    • Children and other vulnerable populations
    • Health inequalities, gender, and marginalized populations

12. Human security

[CONTEXT]

  • Social and economic activities, including employment
  • Education
  • Inequalities, gender, and marginalized populations
  • Culture, values, and society
  • Indigenous peoples
  • Local communities
  • Local and traditional knowledge
  • Migration and population displacement
  • Conflict
  • Community resilience

13. Livelihoods and poverty

[CONTEXT]

  • Chronic and transient poverty
  • Effects of climate change responses on poverty
  • Interactions between climate change and poverty-reduction initiatives
  • Inequalities, gender, and marginalized populations

Adaptation

  1. Adaptation needs and options
    • Synthesis of adaptation needs and options
    • International, national, and sectoral assessments, including National AdaptationProgrammes of Action (NAPAs)
    • Measuring adaptation
    • Addressing maladaptation
  2. Adaptation planning and implementation
    • Local, national, regional, and global strategies, policies, and initiatives
    • Technology development, transfer, and diffusion
    • Financing for adaptation
    • Insurance and social protection
    • Knowledge sharing, learning, and capacity building
    • Institutional arrangements: public- and private-sector stakeholders and priorities
    • Links between adaptation and development
    • Decision support tools and methods
    • Adaptation status and indicators
  3. Adaptation opportunities, constraints, and limits
    • Cross-sectoral synthesis
    • Limits to adaptation, including ethical dimensions and resources
    • Interactions among limits
    • Effects of alternative mitigation pathways on adaptation
    • Ancillary social and ecological effects of adaptation
  4. Economics of adaptation
    • Adaptation costs and benefits at global, national, sectoral, and local levels
    • Inter-relationships between adaptation costs and residual damage
    • Economic instruments to provide incentives
    • Using market-based approaches for adaptation decisionmaking
    • Ancillary economic effectsChapters 14-17 will include case studies of, e.g., Least Developed Countries, indigenous peoples, and other vulnerable countries and groupsMulti-Sector Impacts, Risks, Vulnerabilities, and Opportunities
    1. Detection and attribution of observed impacts
      • Integration of observed impacts across sectors and regions
      • Attribution of observed impacts across sectors and regions
    2. Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities
      • Multiple interacting systems and stresses
      • Indirect impacts, transboundary impacts, and impacts over longer distances
      • Key vulnerabilities, aggregate impacts, thresholds, irreversible changes, and reasonsfor concern
    3. Climate-resilient pathways: adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development
      • Multi-metric valuation
      • Ecosystem services and biodiversity threats
      • Consumption patterns, lifestyles, behavior, culture, education, and awareness
      • Human well-being
      • Adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development, including tradeoffs and cobenefits

PART B: REGIONAL ASPECTS

{Subtitle: Contribution of IPCC WGII Incorporating Inputs from IPCC Working Group I “The Physical Science Basis” and Working Group III “Mitigation of Climate Change”}

This part will include analyses of consistently defined sub-regions and crossregional hotspots (e.g., Mediterranean, megadeltas), based on the availability of
regional information.

21. Regional context

  • Introduction
  • Information on observed climate changes and relevant non-climate factors
  • Regional projections: added value and limitations
  • Similarities and pertinent differences in systems across regions
  • Cross-regional hotspotsRegional Chapters
  1. Africa
  2. Europe
  3. Asia
  4. Australasia
  5. North America
  6. Central and South America
  7. Polar Regions
  8. Small Islands
  9. Open Oceans

Chapter structure (22-30)

  • Introduction
  • Major conclusions from previous assessments[CONTEXT] {with sub-regional information}
  • Adaptation and mitigation interactions
  • Inter- and intra-regional impacts
  • Multi-sector synthesisAppendix I: Glossary
    Appendix II: Acronyms
    Appendix III: Contributors to the IPCC WGII Fifth Assessment Report Appendix IV: Reviewers of the IPCC WGII Fifth Assessment Report Index

 

Working Group III

Working Group III:
AR5 Outline Agreed by WG III Plenary

Table of Contents
Summary for Policy Makers
Technical Summary
Frequently Asked Questions (extracted from the chapters below)

I. INTRODUCTION
1. Introductory Chapter

  • Lessons learned from AR4
  • New challenges for the AR5
  • Historical, current and future trends
  • The mitigation challenges•II. FRAMING ISSUES2. Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies
  • Risk perception
  • Risk and uncertainty in climate change
  • Metrics of uncertainty and risk
  • Managing uncertainty, risk and learning
  • Tools for analyzing uncertainty and risk
  • Frequently asked questions3. Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods
    • Assessing methods of policy choice
    • Ethical and socio-economic principles
    • Metrics of costs and benefits
    • Economics, rights and duties
    • Justice, equity and responsibility
    • Behavioural economics and culture
    • Policy instruments and regulation
    • Technological change
    • Frequently asked questions4. Sustainable Development and Equity
    • Determinants, drivers and barriers
    • Mitigative capacity and mitigation
    • Links to adaptive capacity and adaptation
    • Development pathways
    • Consumption patterns and carbon accounting
    • Integration of framing issues in the context of sustainable development
    • Implications for subsequent chapters
    • Frequently asked questions

III. PATHWAYS FOR MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE 5. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation

  • Global trends in stocks and flows of greenhouse gases and short-lived species
  • Key drivers of global change
  • Production, consumption and trade patterns
  • Contribution of technological change to mitigation
  • Contribution of behavioural change to mitigation
  • Co-benefits and tradeoffs of mitigation including air pollution
  • Carbon and radiation management and other geoengineering options includingenvironmental risks
  • The system perspective: linking sectors, technologies and consumption patterns
  • Frequently asked questions6. Assessing Transformation Pathways
    • T ools of analysis
    • Climate stabilization: Concepts, costs and implications for the macroeconomy, sectorsand technology portfolios, taking into account differences across regions
    • Integrating long- and short-term perspectives
    • Integrating technological and societal change
    • Sustainable development and transformation pathways, taking into accountdifferences across regions
    • Risks of transformation pathways
    • Integrating sector analyses and transformation scenarios
    • Frequently asked questions7. Energy Systems[Note: All sections should consider regional specificities including as appropriate to developed and developing countries and economies in transition.]
    • Energy production, conversion, transmission and distribution
    • New developments in emission trends and drivers
    • Resources and resource availability
    • Mitigation technology options and practices (including energy efficiency)
    • Infrastructure and systemic perspectives
    • Climate change feedback and interaction with adaptation
    • Technological, environmental and other risks and uncertainties; and socialacceptability
    • Co-benefits, tradeoffs, spill-over effects
    • Barriers and opportunities (technological, physical, financial, institutional, cultural,legal, etc.)
    • Sustainable development and behavioural aspects
    • Costs and potentials
    • Gaps in knowledge and data
    • Frequently asked questions

8. Transport

[Note: All sections should consider regional specificities including as appropriate to developed and developing countries and economies in transition.]

  • Freight and passenger transport (land, air, sea and water)
  • New developments in emission trends and drivers
  • Mitigation technology options and practices (including energy efficiency)
  • Infrastructure and systemic perspectives
  • Climate change feedback and interaction with adaptation
  • Technological, environmental and other risks and uncertainties; and socialacceptability
  • Co-benefits, tradeoffs, spill-over effects
  • Barriers and opportunities (technological, physical, financial, institutional, cultural,legal, etc.)
  • Sustainable development and behavioural aspects
  • Costs and potentials
  • Gaps in knowledge and data
  • Frequently asked questions9. Buildings[Note: All sections should consider regional specificities including as appropriate to developed and developing countries and economies in transition.]
  • Commercial, residential and public buildings
  • New developments in emission trends and drivers
  • Mitigation technology options and practices (including energy efficiency)
  • Infrastructure and systemic perspectives
  • Climate change feedback and interaction with adaptation
  • Technological, environmental and other risks and uncertainties; and socialacceptability
  • Co-benefits, tradeoffs, spill-over effects
  • Barriers and opportunities (technological, physical, financial, institutional, cultural,legal, etc.)
  • Sustainable development and behavioural aspects
  • Costs and potentials
  • Gaps in knowledge and data
  • Frequently asked questions10. Industry[Note: All sections should consider regional specificities including as appropriate to developed and developing countries and economies in transition.]
  • New developments in extractive industries, manufacturing and services (includingtourism)
  • New developments in emission trends and drivers
  • Material substitution, material reuse and waste
  • Mitigation technology options and practices (including efficiency improvements,household and industry waste)
  • Infrastructure and systemic perspectives
  • Climate change feedback and interaction with adaptation
  • Technological, environmental and other risks and uncertainties; and socialacceptability
  • Co-benefits, tradeoffs, spill-over effects
  • Barriers and opportunities (technological, physical, financial, institutional, cultural,legal, etc.)
  • Sustainable development and behavioural aspects
  • Costs and potentials
  • Gaps in knowledge and data
  • Frequently asked questions11. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)[Note: All sections should consider regional specificities including as appropriate to developed and developing countries and economies in transition.]
  • Introduction to integrated assessment of AFOLU
  • Emission trends (including agricultural productivity) and drivers
  • Competition and opportunities for land-use (energy, food, feed and timber production; housing, nature conservation, biodiversity and other land uses)
  • Mitigation technologies and practices in forestry, agriculture (e.g. biochar) and livestock farming
  • Mitigation effectiveness (non-permanence: human and natural impacts; displacement; saturation)
  • Systemic perspectives (including integrated land-use assessment)
  • Synergies, tradeoffs and interactions with adaptation and other mitigation options
  • Climate change feedback, natural disturbance and extreme events
  • Environmental and other risks and uncertainties
  • Co-benefits, tradeoffs, spill-over effects
  • Opportunities and barriers (technological, physical, financial, institutional, cultural,legal, etc.)
  • Sustainable development and behavioural aspects
  • Costs and potentials
  • Gaps in knowledge and data
  • Frequently asked questions12. Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning[Note: All sections should consider regional specificities including as appropriate to developed and developing countries and economies in transition.]
    [Note: Working Group III Plenary suggests that the WG III Bureau and the authors have the mandate to revisit the structure and the title of the bullets in this chapter based on the outcome of the Expert Meeting on “Human Settlements and Infrastructure” to be held in 2010.]
  • Urbanisation challenges and opportunities for climate change mitigation
  • Settlement structures, density, forms and lifecycle assessments
  • Infrastructure, spatial planning and mitigation
  • Lifestyle changes and efficiency
  • Waste
  • Water/energy nexus
  • Human settlements and climate change: Experiences across countries
  • Frequently asked questionsIV. ASSESSMENT OF POLICIES, INSTITUTIONS AND FINANCE 13. International Cooperation: Agreements and Instruments
  • Introduction
  • Framing concepts and an assessment of means for international cooperation
  • International agreements: Examples and lessons for climate policy
  • Multilateral and bilateral agreements across different scales
  • Climate policy architectures
  • Mechanisms for technology and knowledge development, transfer, diffusion
  • Capacity building
  • Linkages between international and national policies
  • Linkages between international and regional cooperation
  • Interactions between climate change mitigation policy and trade
  • Performance assessment on policies and institutions including market mechanisms
  • Investment and finance
  • The role of public and private sectors and public-private partnership
  • Frequently asked questions14. Regional Development and Cooperation
    • Introduction
    • Opportunities and barriers of regional cooperation
    • Current development patterns and goals
    • Energy and development
    • Urbanisation and development
    • Consumption and production patterns in the context of development
    • Low carbon development: Opportunities and barriers
    • Links between mitigation, adaptation and development
    • Investment and finance
    • The role of public and private sectors and public-private partnership
    • Frequently asked questions15. National and Sub-national Policies and Institutions
    • Introduction
    • Characteristics and classification of policy instruments and packages
    • Approaches and tools used to evaluate policies and institutions
    • Research and development policy
    • Assessment of the performance of policies and measures in developed anddeveloping countries taking into account development level and capacity
    • Framework: Role of institutions and governance
    • Capacity building
    • National, state and local linkages
    • Links to adaptation
    • Synergies and tradeoffs among policies
    • Assessing policy design options
    • Investment and finance
    • The role of public and private sectors and public-private partnership
    • The role of stakeholders including NGOs
    • Frequently asked questions16. Cross-cutting Investment and Finance Issues
  • Financing low-carbon investments, opportunities, key-drivers and barriers
  • Financing developed countries’ mitigation activities
  • Financing mitigation activities in and for developing countries including for technologydevelopment, transfer and diffusion
  • Financing infrastructure and institutional arrangements
  • Synergies and tradeoffs between financing mitigation and adaptation
  • Directing and leveraging private financing
  • Innovative financing
  • Approaches and scale of financing at national, regional and international level inshort-, mid- and long-term
  • Enabling environments
  • Frequently asked questionsGlossary
    List of Authors and Reviewers Index

 

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