This Nature Communications followed up with two journals articles has been accurate during the study period of the early 21st Century, and onward to last Winter. That is nearly two decades of accuracy in predicting Arctic Vortex collapse. While there is no generic loss of Arctic Sea Ice responsible, the Barents-Kara Seas sets in motion with its pattern of heat flux and warming water a train of events that lead to extremely sever Winters in the Northern Hemisphere.
We look especially to the Barents-Kara Seas (B-K) for an indication during the Arctic Sea Ice Minimum. Why? Because the B-K area has not seen regrowth in November if it is clear at September’s minimum – as it is now. Based on this model, this is a sure indicator of Arctic Vortex Collapse and a negative phase of Arctic Oscillation which leads to much lower season temps on the Eastern Seaboard.
While regrowth has begun on the Far East Siberian Arctic (Laptev Sea in the West to the Chukchi Sea in the East), in coves, fjords, and bay areas, the B-K area are again absolutely free of Arctic Sea Ice (ASIC or SIC). Naryan-Mar is the central city of the Autonomous District of Nenetsia where the Pechora River feeds this area. This is West of the larger city of Vorkuta outside the District.